Washington Watch: Tracking the North Carolina Congressional Delegation — New Maps Set for 2024 Elections
The following publication was written by Strategics Consulting for the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners' (NCACC) County Quarterly article series “Washington Watch.”
Following a rhythm that is now familiar to most North Carolinians, major changes are expected to occur in the state's Congressional representation during the next federal election. In late October 2023, the North Carolina General Assembly approved new district maps for the 2024 election.
Following each decennial census, district maps are redrawn in a process known as redistricting. As required by the North Carolina Constitution, the legislature draws congressional districts from which the members of the United States House of Representatives are elected. Barring any legal challenges, the new map will be used in the 2024 elections for North Carolina's 14 congressional districts. Many citizens across the state will, therefore, be in a different district and represented by a different member in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress than they are now.
The boundaries of all 14 congressional districts will shift under the new 2024 election map as compared to the 2022 court-ordered election map. Some districts, like the 6th and 8th districts, will undergo major shifts in the counties and communities they represent, and others will experience relatively minor shifts, like the 7th and 11th districts. North Carolina's newest congressional districts - the 13th and 14th districts, which were created after the state received two additional congressional districts based on the 2020 census - will change significantly under the new map.
Some organizations have reported that the political composition of North Carolina's delegation is also expected to change under the new maps for the 2024 elections. The state's current delegation in the 118th Congress is evenly split with seven Republicans and seven Democrats. Most election analysts and commentators predict that if the legislature-approved maps remain in place then the makeup of North Carolina's delegation in the next U.S. House of Representatives will include 10 or 11 Republicans and three or four Democrats. The congressional seat considered a party toss-up is currently held by first-term U.S. Representative Don Davis (D-NC1).
U.S. Representative Jeff Jackson (D-NC14) announced shortly after the new maps were approved that he would not seek re-election to Congress after being drawn out of the congressional district he currently represents in his first term. Instead, he announced he is running for the Democrat nomination for North Carolina Attorney General. Another current member of North Carolina's Congressional Delegation, U.S. Representative Dan Bishop (R-NC8), had already announced, even before redistricting, that he would not run for re-election in order to seek the Republican nomination for North Carolina Attorney General. At the time of this writing, U.S. Representatives Deborah Ross (D-NC2), Greg Murphy (R-NC3), Valerie Foushee (D-NC4), Virginia Foxx (R-NC5), Richard Hudson (R-NC9), Patrick McHenry (R-NC10), and Chuck Edwards (R-NC11) have announced they will seek re-election in their current congressional districts with the redrawn boundaries. Candidates have until December 15, 2023, to officially file with the State Board of Elections.
According to an analysis from the national publication Roll Call, U.S. Representatives Wiley Nickel (D-NC14) and Kathy Manning (D-NC6) are ranked as the second and third most vulnerable incumbents in the nation under the redistricting map passed by the N.C. General Assembly. Neither one has formally announced a campaign for re-election, though Congresswoman Manning has indicated she plans to seek re-election in the redrawn 6th Congressional District. Former North Carolina Congressman Mark Walker has left the race for governor in the hopes to return to Congress by running in the newly redrawn 6th district. Congresswoman Manning, who is in her second term, first won the seat when the district was redrawn at the time as more favorable to Democrats, and the incumbent Republican Congressman Walker chose not to run again. Congressman Walker instead campaigned for the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Richard Burr that is now held by U.S. Senator Ted Budd.
Democrats, including U.S. Representatives Ross and Nickel, have said they plan to challenge the maps based on potential racial gerrymandering claims. Republicans in the state legislature have asserted the maps are fair and follow the rules of redistricting. The outcome of any potential legal challenges to the new maps remains uncertain ahead of the December 2023 filing deadline and the March 2024 primary. Most commentators view the success of potential challenges to the maps as unlikely due to recent precedence from the state supreme court concerning the legislature's authority on redistricting, which found that the legislature is not barred from political gerrymandering.
Without a U.S. Senate race for North Carolinians in 2024, the state's federal elections will focus entirely on races for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The new congressional district map and its potential impact will likely feature heavily on the campaign trail and will play a crucial role in the outcome of the next elections. North Carolina's new district map and the makeup of the state's congressional delegation after the 2024 elections may also have an impact on which political party controls the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress and the margin by which it holds majority power.
More information about redistricting and copies of the 2024 election maps from the North Carolina State Board of Elections are available at www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voting-maps-redistricting.
